As this will be the first public post I have shared for the new site, let me welcome you to my new site and blog. This will mainly be a photography blog, but during times of hurricanes, severe weather and snow storms, I will write my thoughts here.
Now as of the 11am advisory, the NHC has a shift in the track of hurricane Dorian to missing Florida to the east with the worst of the storm staying just offshore. The peninsula would still feel some pretty good effects of winds to hurricane force in gusts and heavy flooding rains. The winds would also have a prolonged effect onshore bringing in storm surge all up and down the Florida coastline. Watches for Florida could come at the 5pm update later today. Please heed the watches and warnings if you are in the path, and make the appropriate preparations. As far as the forecast track goes, it brings the hurricane to just offshore the Florida peninsula and then to just off the southeast coast of the Carolinas nearing Wilmington. This does not mean it will be making landfall in that area. The forecast is going to change several times as they NHC hone in on the exact track. And remember, a hurricane is not a point on a map. It’s a massive, large system with effects extending outward hundreds of miles, while the worst weather is centered around the eye or center of the storm, place away can see tornadoes, flooding rains and hurricane force gusts.
As far as the intensity of the hurricane right now.. We have a cat 4 hurricane with winds near the center at about 150mph with higher gusts. Thats a sustained wind, which is an average of the wind speed over a minute. so to get that 150mph, you can imaging the much higher gusts within that minute. Very dangerous and destructive to say the least. The appearance on satellite imagery is impressive. The eye has cleared out and we have the stadium effect which shows indeed a powerful hurricane. There really is not much in the path to help weaken Dorian either. Low wind shear, very warm waters and a general favorable environment. One closer to the coast, we would see frictional effects from land, possible upwelling of cooler water as it slows, and any other number of things that could help weaken it. As well as the hard to near impossible to predict ERC (eyewall replacement cycles).
So, for now, we continue to wait and see what happens through the weekend. I do not make forecasts here. I am not meteorologist and don’t pretend to be. I just update what the condones are and what the models seem to be showing and leave the forecasting to the professionals. I may give my thinking and thoughts from tie to time, but I will always refer you back to the experts at the NHC. I will update again later this evening. And please save the link to the site and the blog and pass it on!
