DORIAN A CATEGORY 5 THIS MORNING! WINDS OF 185MPH
As of this post at 1pm, the center of extremely powerful hurricane Dorian is beginning to move over the northwestern islands in the Bahamas. Grand Bahama island is up first as the western eyewall with those incredibly high sustained winds of 185mph move over the island. With that wind speed, Dorian is setting records. It is the strongest in terms of winds in the northern Bahamas on record. The strongest wind speed that far north in the Atlantic, and in terms of winds, possibly the third strongest in history. I say in terms of winds because we determine intensity by several factors. Winds and pressure. The pressure right now has been recorded by recon flights to be 911mb. The pressure is usually the main intensity factor. How strong a storm is, is by how low the pressure is. The lowest pressure ever recorded in a hurricane in the Atlantic basin was 2005 in hurricane Wilma in the Gulf at 882mb. Wilma dethroned hurricane Gilbert for that title , where Gilbert was 888mb in 1988. Amazing!
So…lets discuss the forecast track briefly and touch on the models. First the forecast track… Yesterday the NOAA G-IV high altitude aircraft was able to get back out after having mechanical issues and sample the environment around and ahead of Dorian. That helps the forecasters with the model data as well as their extended forecasts. That data didn’t change the track forecast very much last night and today, and the NHC continue to show a near miss of the eastern peninsula of Florida as Dorian slows and then turns more towards the north coming out of the Bahamas. And in fact, as of the 11am discussion and forecast, they continue to show a near miss for the entire eastern seaboard. Some of the effects would be tropical storm force winds along the coastal areas… heavy rains even inland would still move inland but the core, or worst of the system would remain offshore. Possibly expanding as the hurricane gets closer to the Carolinas, some of those hurricane force winds would move inland. Thats just something we do not know at this time.
Next is the models. As I mentioned, that data from yesterday made its way into all the global and hurricane models last night and some changed back to showing a landfall along Florida to a closer approach but still east and then up the coast and out. While the GFS still misses Florida to the east, it does make landfall further north along all three capes in North Carolina, Cape Fear, Cape Lookout and then Cape Hatteras from the southwest across the Pamlico Sound. We will have to remain vigilant into the start of the week and mid week to see exactly where Dorian heads. It would be weaker if a landfall along the Carolina coast were to materialize, but still be a possible decent cat 2 in the area.
If you live in Florida please pay close attention to the forecasts and local officials when they say go, if they say go. Hurricane watches have been issued for fear that this hurricane force winds could come ashore. So make sure you complete those preparations now.
Please follow Mark Sudduth’s live video cam from the vehicle as he departs Wilmington for Florida to cover Dorian’s effects