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HURRICANE DORIAN WEAKENS AS HE STALLS... ALL EYES ON THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR POSSIBLE LANDFALL?

September 02, 2019 / Jesse Bass

Hurricane Dorian has weakened this morning and afternoon as he has slowed to a crawl or stalled over the Bahamas. Winds are now down to 145mph still making Dorian a very powerful category 4 hurricane. This afternoon officials along the South Carolina and North Carolina coastal areas are beginning mandatory evacuations. North Carolina has just said as of tomorrow at Noon, Dare County will begin those evacuations. The forecast calls for Dorian to possibly be a cat 2 hurricane as it approaches the Carolinas later this week. The NHC forecast track has shifted each advisory closer to the Outer Banks of North Carolina, keeping the eye just offshore but the core of the hurricane would certainly cross portions of the coast starting Thursday and Friday. Please follow the official forecasts at the National Hurricane Centers website.

Now lets talk about the models. The global models have started to come into better agreement the last day or so all missing the Florida coast, possibly still bringing hurricane conditions ashore, but keeping the worst of the conditions out to sea. The biggest thing with those models is they just about all show a landfall along the Carolina coast, one near the North and South Carolina border but the rest a bit further up the coast nearing New Bern or even the Outer Banks. Below are some images of those model runs. We will start with the GFS. All of these are from the 12z, or 8am runs this morning. Click the images for a large view.

Hurricane Dorian passing the Florida, Georgia boarder. 12z GFS — Hurricane Dorian passing the Florida, Georgia boarder. 12z GFS

Now Dorian appears to cross the Cape Fear region making landfall. 12z GFS — Now Dorian appears to cross the Cape Fear region making landfall. 12z GFS

GFS 12z now showing a possible second landfall near Cape Lookout along the southern Outer Banks. — GFS 12z now showing a possible second landfall near Cape Lookout along the southern Outer Banks.

12z GFS now taking Dorian across the Outer Banks and Cape Hatteras. — 12z GFS now taking Dorian across the Outer Banks and Cape Hatteras.

Here we see the 12z Eurojust east of South Carolina turning northeast — Here we see the 12z Eurojust east of South Carolina turning northeast

Next image from the Euro we see it bring Dorian into the area of Cape Hatteras. — Next image from the Euro we see it bring Dorian into the area of Cape Hatteras.

And now we see the UKMET with Dorian sitting right over the North Carolina Outer Banks. 12z run — And now we see the UKMET with Dorian sitting right over the North Carolina Outer Banks. 12z run

This is one of the hurricane models, the HMON bringing Dorian into Cape Lookout towards the Pamlico Sound in North Carolina. — This is one of the hurricane models, the HMON bringing Dorian into Cape Lookout towards the Pamlico Sound in North Carolina.

And 2 images later… It starts to exit the coast over Nags Head in the Outer Banks. — And 2 images later… It starts to exit the coast over Nags Head in the Outer Banks.

As you can see from what we refer to as the big 3, we see that generally the areas along the Outer Banks really needs to pay very close attention as we head into the next few days. Also, one of the very good hurricane models the HMON pretty much shows us the same scenario as the global models. None of this is etched in stone, but we seriously need to pay close attention now into the Mid-Atlantic. It, is starting to all line up, or come together with a nice consensus in the models that at least they see nearly the same thing. I don’t do forecasts, that’s left to the pros. I will simply point out some of the models and their runs and what they show in terms of similarities and differences. Continue to follow the official forecast at the NHC and your local NWS forecast office.

Dorian is stationary right now as of the 5pm update, and should begin moving soon as a ridge rebuilds to the east. Once that movement starts, we should get a better handle on when and where Dorian could go. Also, just recently, Virginia has declared a state of emergency. We will see what the local officials have to say about the possibility of evacuation soon.

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